Approximately 10 million children were living in poverty in 2023, according to today’s release of poverty estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau.[1] This corresponds to 13.7 percent of all children under age 18.
Despite a growing economy, these numbers are the highest they have been since before the COVID-19 pandemic (Figure 1). In 2020 and 2021, the social safety net was temporarily expanded to keep children and families from experiencing the worst of the potential consequences brought on by high rates of unemployment and job loss during the pandemic. As a result, the child poverty rate was cut nearly in half. With the expiration of such policies, child poverty more than doubled from 2021 to 2022, returning to pre-pandemic levels. The new estimates indicate that child poverty in 2023 outpaced pre-pandemic child poverty rates, even as inflation-adjusted wages grew. Nearly 1 million more children were in poverty in 2023 than in 2022.
Source: Poverty estimates are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Annual Poverty in the United States report series, the most recent of which is Poverty in the United States: 2023.
There are two main factors that influence annual changes in child poverty:
Shifts in the demographic makeup of the population can also shape child poverty because some demographic groups are more likely than others to have access to resources (i.e., income, employment, economic mobility opportunities) that keep them out of poverty. However, demographic shifts—such as changes with respect to educational attainment, family structure, age of childbearing, immigration, and the racial/ethnic makeup of the population—tend to occur more slowly and have less impact on annual changes in child poverty rates.
Shifts in economic conditions in 2023. Overall, 2023 saw a moderately improving economy compared to 2022. The annual unemployment rate remained stable in 2023 (3.6%, the same as in 2022). And, while many families continued to see increases in the cost of living (especially food prices), the average annual inflation rate in 2023 (4%) was considerably lower than in 2022 (8%). Most importantly, in 2023, wages outpaced inflation and real wage growth was strongest for the lowest-wage workers. This means that, even while costs of basic necessities (especially food costs) increased in 2023, increases in wages likely offset those increased costs for many families—but not all. These offsets, however, did not prevent a substantial increase in the number of families whose incomes fell below the threshold required to meet their basic needs.
Shifts in social policy in 2023. Social safety net programs have been particularly relevant to child poverty trends since the beginning of the pandemic. The extent to which individual programs have reduced child poverty—before, during, and after the public health emergency brought on by the pandemic—have varied with each program’s expansion and reduction (Figure 2).
Source: Estimates are from the U.S. Census Bureau’s annual Poverty in the United States report series, the most recent of which is Poverty in the United States: 2023.
Notes: Within the figures above, some bars are labeled with equal values but have slight differences in height; this is due to rounding.
To evaluate the effect of an individual government program on the number of children living in households with resources below the supplemental poverty threshold, the Census Bureau subtracts the cash value of an individual program’s benefits from a household’s resources and recalculates poverty status without that program. Poverty status changes if subtracting a program benefit decreases an individual’s resources below their poverty threshold. The above graph represents the number of children who were not in poverty when the program’s benefits were included but were in poverty when the program’s benefits were subtracted from their economic resources. These additions and subtractions are done independently for each program and assume no behavioral changes such as shifts in employment status or expenses. For more on how the Census Bureau measures poverty, see here.
While a strong economy featuring low rates of unemployment and real wage growth is critical to keeping children and their families out of poverty, recent economic growth has not been enough to prevent an increase in the number of children experiencing poverty in the United States. More than 1 in 8 children lived in poverty in 2023—a rate more than double the historic lows achieved during the pandemic. Community leaders and public officials must decide whether and how they plan to guide the nation back to these record low levels of child poverty that we know are attainable.
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[1] All poverty estimates reported in this blog are based on the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), which includes noncash government benefits (e.g., food and housing assistance) and refundable tax credits (e.g., the Earned Income Tax Credit, or EITC)—as well as cash income—in its calculation of a family’s resources. The SPM poverty threshold varies by geography to account for cost-of-living differences, but, on average in 2023, households with an income of less than approximately $37,482 (for a two-adult, two-child household that rents its housing) were considered to be experiencing poverty. For more information about how the SPM compares to the Official Poverty Measure (OPM), see How Poverty Is Measured in the United States.
Suggested citation
Padilla, C.M., & Thomson, D. (2024). Nearly 1 million more children were in poverty in 2023 than 2022, despite economic growth. Child Trends. DOI: 10.56417/179s7797t
Acknowledgements
The authors would like to thank the following individuals for their support on this piece: Brent Franklin, Kristen Harper, Matt Haugen, Olga Morales, Catherine Nichols, Kylee Novak, Stephen Russ, and Renee Ryberg.
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